(s)
-3-
(3)
4.
Not only would local British commercial development
come to an end but existing capital values would
fall ruinously as well.
Obviously,
The memorandum is restricted to issues
directly relevant to Hong Kong as a British Colony.
however, the interests of British trade in China and the Far
East are bound up with the survival of that Colony and are,
therefore, vitally concerned with the continuance of British
control in the leased territory, both mainland and island.
Those best qualified to express an opinion on the point whom
I have been able to consult hold the view that the volume of
trade along the Hong Kong Hankow railway route is certain
to grow steadily when China is again in a position to develop
her south-western provinces.
Moreover, it may be asserted
safely, I think, that Great Britain's prestige in this part
of the world rests to a very large extent upon the fortunes
of this colony.
5.
In your telegram of May 28th you asked me
to suggest the price or consideration which it would be worth
the while of the Imperial Government to pay for an extension
of the lease. The factors in the calculation are for the
most part too imponderable to allow of individual valuation.
On the other hand, the conclusions to which consideration of
those factors leads are that Hong Kong cannot survive as a
British Colony into the next century unless assured of full
control over most, if not all, the presently leased territory
and, secondly, that British trade and prestige in this part
of the world depend largely on that survival. If these are
accepted the two issues requiring solution are :
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